SEARS O3.5 · 8:40P//WEATHERS O5.5 · 1:10P//MCLEAN U6.5 · 6:10P//WINN O0.5 · 11:10A//HOLMES U4.5 · 6:15P//LOWDER O4.5 · 6:10P//BURKE O6.5 · 1:10P//GRAY O4.5 · 8:40P//MILLER O5.5 · 9:10P//IRVIN O4.5 · 6:15P//PÉREZ O5.5 · 6:10P//RAY U4.5 · 8:40P//MCCLANAHAN O4.5 · 11:10A//SASAKI U5.5 · 9:10P//EOVALDI U1.5 · 11:10A//WOO U5.5 · 9:10P//RAMÍREZ U1.5 · 6:10P//OBER U · 12:40P//CAMERON U · 12:40P//PALLANTE U · 1:15P//ASSAD U · 1:15P//BARCO U · 6:10P//BARNETT U · 8:40P//MARQUEZ U · 8:40P//SEARS O3.5 · 8:40P//WEATHERS O5.5 · 1:10P//MCLEAN U6.5 · 6:10P//WINN O0.5 · 11:10A//HOLMES U4.5 · 6:15P//LOWDER O4.5 · 6:10P//BURKE O6.5 · 1:10P//GRAY O4.5 · 8:40P//MILLER O5.5 · 9:10P//IRVIN O4.5 · 6:15P//PÉREZ O5.5 · 6:10P//RAY U4.5 · 8:40P//MCCLANAHAN O4.5 · 11:10A//SASAKI U5.5 · 9:10P//EOVALDI U1.5 · 11:10A//WOO U5.5 · 9:10P//RAMÍREZ U1.5 · 6:10P//OBER U · 12:40P//CAMERON U · 12:40P//PALLANTE U · 1:15P//ASSAD U · 1:15P//BARCO U · 6:10P//BARNETT U · 8:40P//MARQUEZ U · 8:40P//
THE DAY6:30A YESTERDAY GRADED8A MODEL BUILDS11:10A FIRST PITCH~1P ALT LINES PRICE2P RE-SCREEN~3:30P+ LINEUPS → PICKS FREEZE5P TOMORROW LOCKS

THE
RECORD

how the slate actually did · scoreboard, not proof of an edge
ALL LEANS ≥0.5385-307
WIN%55.6%
95% CI52–59%
BEAT-LINE (1270 LEGS)52.9%
01

THE RECORD

two frozen paper tracks · picked in advance, locked, graded in public
THE OVERNIGHT CARD
picked the night before off opening lines · locked 6:00 AM · no edits after
LATESTSAT 07/25 · 0-1 · nothing frozen since (feed outage)ALL-TIME15-11WIN%58%COULD REALLY BE39–74%VS CLOSE-0.4 PTS · beat close 4/19LAST SLATES
THE MORNING CARD
the 8A card frozen at its posted lines · kept visible all day · graded win or lose
LATESTWED 07/29 · 4-2 · 1 pending · nothing frozen since (feed outage)ALL-TIME6-3WIN%67%COULD REALLY BE35–88%VS CLOSE+1.3 PTS · beat close 2/5LAST SLATES
THE CONFIRMED CARD
each pick freezes the second the opposing lineup posts · what you see is what gets graded
LATESTWED 07/29 · 4-1 · nothing frozen since (feed outage)ALL-TIME28-17WIN%62%COULD REALLY BE48–75%VS CLOSE+0.2 PTS · beat close 7/36LAST SLATES
HOW TO READ THE RECORDfrozen = picked in advance and locked · results can’t be massaged after the factWIN% needs ~58% to beat the juice · a winning record can still lose moneyCOULD REALLY BE = the honest range on a small sample · wide = not proven either wayVS CLOSE = our price vs the closing price · beating the close is the only edge that lasts
the honest read: the record is ahead of breakeven but closing-line value is positive but thin. The edge is NOT proven. this stays paper until CLV holds green on real volume.
02

THE LAST 3 SLATES

the RESEARCH record · every model lean, graded · the CARD above is the bet record
WED 07/2915-10ALL 42 arms that PITCHED · 25 lined and graded · 0 pitched unlined · 17 still live
PITCHERLINEOURSOUR LEANACTUALW/L
Trey Yesavage CARD5.54.3▼ UNDER 5.54 KW
Logan Webb CARD5.54.3▼ UNDER 5.54 KW
Randy Dobnak2.53.6▲ OVER 2.54 KW
Jesús Luzardo CARD7.56.5▼ UNDER 7.55 KW
Cam Schlittler6.57.5▲ OVER 6.58 KW
Dustin May5.54.6▼ UNDER 5.53 KW
Tarik Skubal CARD7.56.8▼ UNDER 7.56 KW
Emerson Hancock4.55.2▲ OVER 4.55 KW
Christian Scott5.56.1▲ OVER 5.57 KW
Davis Martin4.55.0▲ OVER 4.56 KW
Joe Ryan6.56.0▼ UNDER 6.54 KW
Trevor Rogers4.54.8▲ OVER 4.56 KW
Brady Singer4.54.2▼ UNDER 4.53 KW
Zack Littell2.52.4▼ UNDER 2.52 KW
Eric Lauer4.54.5▼ UNDER 4.54 KW
Casey Legumina1.55.0▲ OVER 1.50 KL
Grayson Rodriguez CARD4.53.1▼ UNDER 4.56 KL
Chris Sale CARD7.56.3▼ UNDER 7.59 KL
AJ Smith-Shawver4.55.6▲ OVER 4.54 KL
Hayden Wesneski4.55.5▲ OVER 4.54 KL
Matthew Boyd CARD4.53.8▼ UNDER 4.55 KL
Sean Manaea4.55.0▲ OVER 4.54 KL
MacKenzie Gore5.55.0▼ UNDER 5.59 KL
Joey Cantillo6.56.4▼ UNDER 6.58 KL
Ryan Gusto4.54.5▲ OVER 4.53 KL
Eury Pérez—6.4NO LINElive…PEND
Nolan McLean—6.3NO LINElive…PEND
Ian Seymour—6.2NO LINElive…PEND
Hunter Brown—5.3NO LINElive…PEND
Griffin Canning—5.1NO LINElive…PEND
Spencer Arrighetti—4.9NO LINElive…PEND
Shane McClanahan—4.6NO LINElive…PEND
Michael Wacha—4.5NO LINElive…PEND
Germán Márquez—4.2NO LINElive…PEND
Randy Vásquez—3.5NO LINElive…PEND
Nick Martinez—2.9NO LINElive…PEND
Gabriel Hughes4.55.5▲ OVER 4.5live…PEND
Jacob Lopez4.53.9▼ UNDER 4.5live…PEND
Eduardo Rodriguez4.54.0▼ UNDER 4.5live…PEND
Jared Jones5.55.1▼ UNDER 5.5live…PEND
Patrick Sandoval4.54.7▲ OVER 4.5live…PEND
Shane Drohan5.55.4▼ UNDER 5.5live…PEND
TUE 07/280-0
42 still live NO LINES POSTED (feed outage)
MON 07/271-1
SCHERZER O2.5 · 4K ✓ ALVAREZ O3.5 · 3K ✗ 3 still live +21 unlined
03

CLOSING LINE VALUE

slate of 2026-07-29 · BOTH frozen tracks · OVN = night-before opener entry, CONF = lineup-post entry · de-vigged fair probability, same line · the durable edge test
PITCHERPICKENTRYCLOSECLVRESULT
CONF Jesús LuzardoU 7.552.0%60.7%+8.6 PTS ✓W · 5K
CONF Jesús LuzardoU 7.553.0%60.7%+7.6 PTS ✓W · 5K
CONF Trey YesavageU 5.552.2%52.8%+0.6 PTS ✓W · 4K
CONF Trey YesavageU 5.552.7%52.8%+0.1 PTS ✓W · 4K
CONF Tarik SkubalU 8.551.2%50.7%-0.5 PTSW · 6K
CONF Tarik SkubalU 8.551.4%50.7%-0.7 PTSW · 6K
CONF Logan WebbU 5.555.7%54.2%-1.5 PTSW · 4K
CONF Logan WebbU 5.558.3%54.2%-4.1 PTSW · 4K
RESEARCH / PAPER-TRACK · NOT BETTING ADVICE. "OUR K%" IS A CALIBRATED PROBABILITY (CAPS ≈ 70% BY DESIGN). THE MODEL IS AT-MARKET; CLOSING-LINE VALUE IS THE TEST. COLOR KEY · VOLT = OUR MODEL · GOLD = FROZEN/CARDED · BLUE = THE MARKET · ORANGE = OVER · VIOLET = UNDER · GREEN/RED = LIVE & RESULTS ONLY. TICKER RE-POLLS LIVE KS EVERY 60s.