SEARS O3.5 · 8:40P//WEATHERS O5.5 · 1:10P//MCLEAN U6.5 · 6:10P//WINN O0.5 · 11:10A//HOLMES U4.5 · 6:15P//LOWDER O4.5 · 6:10P//BURKE O6.5 · 1:10P//GRAY O4.5 · 8:40P//MILLER O5.5 · 9:10P//IRVIN O4.5 · 6:15P//PÉREZ O5.5 · 6:10P//RAY U4.5 · 8:40P//MCCLANAHAN O4.5 · 11:10A//SASAKI U5.5 · 9:10P//EOVALDI U1.5 · 11:10A//WOO U5.5 · 9:10P//RAMÍREZ U1.5 · 6:10P//OBER U · 12:40P//CAMERON U · 12:40P//PALLANTE U · 1:15P//ASSAD U · 1:15P//BARCO U · 6:10P//BARNETT U · 8:40P//MARQUEZ U · 8:40P//SEARS O3.5 · 8:40P//WEATHERS O5.5 · 1:10P//MCLEAN U6.5 · 6:10P//WINN O0.5 · 11:10A//HOLMES U4.5 · 6:15P//LOWDER O4.5 · 6:10P//BURKE O6.5 · 1:10P//GRAY O4.5 · 8:40P//MILLER O5.5 · 9:10P//IRVIN O4.5 · 6:15P//PÉREZ O5.5 · 6:10P//RAY U4.5 · 8:40P//MCCLANAHAN O4.5 · 11:10A//SASAKI U5.5 · 9:10P//EOVALDI U1.5 · 11:10A//WOO U5.5 · 9:10P//RAMÍREZ U1.5 · 6:10P//OBER U · 12:40P//CAMERON U · 12:40P//PALLANTE U · 1:15P//ASSAD U · 1:15P//BARCO U · 6:10P//BARNETT U · 8:40P//MARQUEZ U · 8:40P//
THE DAY6:30A YESTERDAY GRADED8A MODEL BUILDS11:10A FIRST PITCH~1P ALT LINES PRICE2P RE-SCREEN~3:30P+ LINEUPS → PICKS FREEZE5P TOMORROW LOCKS

THE
VITALS

model diagnostics · day 64 of tracking · rendered 2026-07-29 22:52
BET-STRENGTH RECORD57.2%
LEGS174/304
CI FLOOR51.6%
BREAKEVEN57.7%
VERDICTPROMISING, NOT YET PROVEN
01

TONIGHT’S DRIFT

every model lean’s entry vs the line RIGHT NOW · GOLD ROWS = OUR CARD, listed first · no closes stamped yet · PROVISIONAL: the graded call happens at close, on the RECORD tab
PITCHERPICKOPENNOWDRIFT
no drift to show yet · entries stamp as the overnight card freezes, and the drift fills in as books move through the night and game day
02

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED

the three things worth knowing about this model, graded on real slates
01picks that BEAT THE CLOSING LINE win 62% · only 49% when we don’t. that gap is the whole thesis: beat the close and the wins follow
02when our card and the sharp market AGREE we win 67% (45 picks · small sample, do not extrapolate)
03NO signal has graduated yet · every honest floor is still below the 57.7% breakeven. that is why this stays paper
UNDER THE HOOD · full diagnostics (signal scorecard · conviction curve · nightly run history)
SIGNAL SCORECARD · every scenario we track; a signal graduates only when its floor clears 57.7%
SCENARIONWIN%COULD REALLY BE (FLOOR)
market ALIGNED20753%46%
market FADED14653%45%
market NEUTRAL8650%40%
beat the close14162%54%
did NOT beat close17249%42%
discrepancy CONFIRMED25454%48%
conviction >=1.07756%45%
conviction36252%46%
carded & ALIGNED4567%52%
CONVICTION → WINS · 518 graded legs; ordering holds, no bucket clears breakeven
BUCKETWIN%N
conviction 0.0-0.550%563
conviction 0.5-154%390
conviction 1.0-1.556%206
conviction 1.5-266%59
conviction 2.0-9951%35
RUN HISTORY · one row per nightly build; REC W% and CLV BEAT are cumulative
SLATESTARTERSCARDEDTOP EVREC W%CLV BEAT
2026-07-30240+51%——
2026-07-29318———
2026-07-28420———
2026-07-27224—50%—
2026-07-26161—100%60%
2026-07-25302—50%57%
2026-07-24328+140%38%67%
2026-07-23134+60%50%67%
2026-07-22355—60%—
2026-07-21320———
REALITY CHECKEdges are thin (+2–6% EV; win probs 54–59% vs ~53–58% breakevens). Lineup/weather/umpire context used neutral fallbacks in this run. Market lean is de-vigged from sharp two-sided book odds · it does not gate the card; it's tracked to learn whether agreement predicts wins. The model's edge is not yet statistically proven. Bet responsibly.
RESEARCH / PAPER-TRACK · NOT BETTING ADVICE. "OUR K%" IS A CALIBRATED PROBABILITY (CAPS ≈ 70% BY DESIGN). THE MODEL IS AT-MARKET; CLOSING-LINE VALUE IS THE TEST. COLOR KEY · VOLT = OUR MODEL · GOLD = FROZEN/CARDED · BLUE = THE MARKET · ORANGE = OVER · VIOLET = UNDER · GREEN/RED = LIVE & RESULTS ONLY. TICKER RE-POLLS LIVE KS EVERY 60s.