PUBLIC RECORD · COMPLETED RESULTS ONLY//PUBLIC RECORD · COMPLETED RESULTS ONLY//

THE DAY6:30 AM CST YESTERDAY GRADED8:00 AM CST MODEL BUILDS11:35 AM CST FIRST PITCH~1:00 PM CST ALT LINES PRICE2:00 PM CST RE-SCREEN~3:30 PM CST LINEUPS → PICKS FREEZE5:00 PM CST TOMORROW EARLY LOOK6:40 PM CST TOMORROW SCOUT7:45–11:45 PM CST TOMORROW BOARD REFRESHES

THE
RECORD

how the slate actually did · scoreboard, not proof of an edge

ALL NON-NEUTRAL LEGS1197-1035

ALL LEANS ≥0.5718-588

WIN%55.0%

95% CI52–58%

BEAT-LINE (2683 LEGS)53.1%

CONVICTION LADDER · SMALL EDGE → MID → BET-STRENGTH52% → 55% → 55%

OFFICIAL CARD RECORDS

three official card records · picked in advance, locked, graded in public

THE OVERNIGHT CARD

picked the night before off opening lines · locked 6:00 AM CST · no edits after

LATESTWED 09/23 · 2-0 · no qualifying picks sinceALL-TIME52-32WIN%62%VS CLOSE+2.0 PTS · beat close 15/32LAST SLATES

THE MORNING CARD

the 8:00 AM CST card frozen at its posted lines · kept visible all day · graded win or lose

LATESTTHU 09/24 · 1-0 · no qualifying picks sinceALL-TIME29-22WIN%57%VS CLOSE+0.8 PTS · beat close 5/12LAST SLATES

THE CONFIRMED CARD

each pick freezes the second the opposing lineup posts · what you see is what gets graded

LATESTFRI 08/28 · 0-1 · no qualifying picks sinceALL-TIME36-23WIN%61%VS CLOSE+0.5 PTS · beat close 13/47LAST SLATES

HOW TO READ THE RECORDfrozen = picked in advance and locked · results can’t be massaged after the factWIN% needs ~58% to beat the juice · a winning record can still lose moneyVS CLOSE = our price vs the closing price · beating the close is the only edge that lasts

the honest read: the record is ahead of breakeven but closing-line value is positive but thin. The edge is NOT proven. the evidence remains provisional until closing-line value holds on meaningful volume.

THE LAST 3 SLATES

all model leans · every model lean, graded · the official cards above are the posted record

SAT 09/260-0ALL 11 arms that PITCHED · 0 lined and graded · 5 pitched unlined · 6 in play now · 22 not started · those rows publish at first pitch · NO LINES POSTED (feed outage)

PITCHER	LINE	OURS	OUR LEAN	ACTUAL	W/L
Trey Yesavage	—	—	NO LINE	live…	PEND
Rhett Lowder	—	—	NO LINE	live…	PEND
Matt Wilkinson	—	—	NO LINE	live…	PEND
Blake Snell	—	—	NO LINE	live…	PEND
Jack Ralston	—	—	NO LINE	live…	PEND
Brent Suter	—	—	NO LINE	live…	PEND
Connelly Early	—	—	NO LINE	1 K	—
Jonah Tong	—	—	NO LINE	9 K	—
Justin Verlander	—	—	NO LINE	6 K	—
Kirby Yates	—	—	NO LINE	1 K	—
Jake Irvin	—	—	NO LINE	6 K	—

FRI 09/2518-10

LODOLO U4.5 · 3K ✓ GAMBOA O0.5 · 1K ✓ CAMERON U4.5 · 3K ✓ SUGANO O3.5 · 5K ✓ JOBE O5.5 · 8K ✓ LOPEZ U4.5 · 4K ✓ DEGROM U6.5 · 5K ✓ SKUBAL O7.5 · 10K ✓ ALVAREZ O4.5 · 7K ✓ ROGERS U6.5 · 4K ✓ PÉREZ O5.5 · 8K ✓ PFAADT O3.5 · 7K ✓ MILLER O6.5 · 7K ✓ YOUNG O5.5 · 6K ✓ DETMERS O6.5 · 7K ✓ HOLMES U4.5 · 3K ✓ PETERSON O4.5 · 6K ✓ PERALTA U4.5 · 4K ✓ BURKE U6.5 · 7K ✗ SÁNCHEZ U5.5 · 10K ✗ BROWN O5.5 · 4K ✗ RYAN U6.5 · 8K ✗ MCGREEVY O3.5 · 2K ✗ WILLIAMS O6.5 · 4K ✗ MARTE U3.5 · 4K ✗ GASSER U4.5 · 9K ✗ MIZE O3.5 · 1K ✗ CHANDLER O4.5 · 2K ✗ +7 unlined 3 scratched

THU 09/240-0

NO LINES POSTED (feed outage) +24 unlined 3 scratched

CLOSING LINE VALUE

slate of 2026-09-25 · every frozen track · OVN = night-before entry · 8:00 AM CST = morning-card entry · CONF = lineup-post entry · same pick can appear once per track · de-vigged fair probability, same line · the durable edge test · last 7 slates: +2.8 PTS avg · beat close 4/7

PITCHER	PICK	ENTRY	CLOSE	CLV	RESULT
CONF Nick Lodolo	U 4 line 4→4.5	—	58.5%	frozen post-start · no CLV	W · 3K
CONF Nick Lodolo	U 4	—	58.5%	frozen post-start · no CLV	W · 3K

MODEL OUTPUTS · TRANSPARENTLY TRACKED · NOT BETTING ADVICE. "OUR K%" IS A CALIBRATED PROBABILITY (CAPS ≈ 70% BY DESIGN). THE MODEL IS AT-MARKET; CLOSING-LINE VALUE IS THE TEST. COLOR KEY · VOLT = OUR MODEL · GOLD = FROZEN/CARDED · BLUE = THE MARKET · ORANGE = OVER · VIOLET = UNDER · GREEN/RED = LIVE & RESULTS ONLY. THIS TAB IS TOMORROW ONLY · LIVE ACTION IS ON THE BOARD.