SEARS O3.5 · 8:40P//WEATHERS O5.5 · 1:10P//MCLEAN U6.5 · 6:10P//WINN O0.5 · 11:10A//HOLMES U4.5 · 6:15P//LOWDER O4.5 · 6:10P//BURKE O6.5 · 1:10P//GRAY O4.5 · 8:40P//MILLER O5.5 · 9:10P//IRVIN O4.5 · 6:15P//PÉREZ O5.5 · 6:10P//RAY U4.5 · 8:40P//MCCLANAHAN O4.5 · 11:10A//SASAKI U5.5 · 9:10P//EOVALDI U1.5 · 11:10A//WOO U5.5 · 9:10P//RAMÍREZ U1.5 · 6:10P//OBER U · 12:40P//CAMERON U · 12:40P//PALLANTE U · 1:15P//ASSAD U · 1:15P//BARCO U · 6:10P//BARNETT U · 8:40P//MARQUEZ U · 8:40P//SEARS O3.5 · 8:40P//WEATHERS O5.5 · 1:10P//MCLEAN U6.5 · 6:10P//WINN O0.5 · 11:10A//HOLMES U4.5 · 6:15P//LOWDER O4.5 · 6:10P//BURKE O6.5 · 1:10P//GRAY O4.5 · 8:40P//MILLER O5.5 · 9:10P//IRVIN O4.5 · 6:15P//PÉREZ O5.5 · 6:10P//RAY U4.5 · 8:40P//MCCLANAHAN O4.5 · 11:10A//SASAKI U5.5 · 9:10P//EOVALDI U1.5 · 11:10A//WOO U5.5 · 9:10P//RAMÍREZ U1.5 · 6:10P//OBER U · 12:40P//CAMERON U · 12:40P//PALLANTE U · 1:15P//ASSAD U · 1:15P//BARCO U · 6:10P//BARNETT U · 8:40P//MARQUEZ U · 8:40P//
THE DAY6:30A YESTERDAY GRADED8A MODEL BUILDS11:10A FIRST PITCH~1P ALT LINES PRICE2P RE-SCREEN~3:30P+ LINEUPS → PICKS FREEZE5P TOMORROW LOCKS

THE
RECORD

how the slate actually did · scoreboard, not proof of an edge
ALL LEANS ≥0.5385-307
WIN%55.6%
95% CI52–59%
BEAT-LINE (1270 LEGS)52.9%
01

THE RECORD

two frozen paper tracks · picked in advance, locked, graded in public
THE OVERNIGHT CARD
picked the night before off opening lines · locked 6:00 AM · no edits after
LATESTSAT 07/25 · 0-1 · nothing frozen since (feed outage)ALL-TIME15-11WIN%58%COULD REALLY BE39–74%VS CLOSE-0.4 PTS · beat close 4/19LAST SLATES
THE MORNING CARD
the 8A card frozen at its posted lines · kept visible all day · graded win or lose
LATESTWED 07/29 · 4-2 · 1 pending · nothing frozen since (feed outage)ALL-TIME6-3WIN%67%COULD REALLY BE35–88%VS CLOSE+1.3 PTS · beat close 2/5LAST SLATES
THE CONFIRMED CARD
each pick freezes the second the opposing lineup posts · what you see is what gets graded
LATESTWED 07/29 · 4-1 · nothing frozen since (feed outage)ALL-TIME28-17WIN%62%COULD REALLY BE48–75%VS CLOSE+0.2 PTS · beat close 7/36LAST SLATES
HOW TO READ THE RECORDfrozen = picked in advance and locked · results can’t be massaged after the factWIN% needs ~58% to beat the juice · a winning record can still lose moneyCOULD REALLY BE = the honest range on a small sample · wide = not proven either wayVS CLOSE = our price vs the closing price · beating the close is the only edge that lasts
the honest read: the record is ahead of breakeven but closing-line value is positive but thin. The edge is NOT proven. this stays paper until CLV holds green on real volume.
02

THE LAST 3 SLATES

the RESEARCH record · every model lean, graded · the CARD above is the bet record
MON 07/271-1ALL 23 arms that PITCHED · 2 lined and graded · 21 pitched unlined · 3 scratched · removed
PITCHERLINEOURSOUR LEANACTUALW/L
Max Scherzer2.52.8▲ OVER 2.54 KW
Andrew Alvarez3.53.6▲ OVER 3.53 KL
Tatsuya Imai—6.9NO LINE1 K—
Payton Tolle—5.8NO LINE7 K—
Zack Wheeler—5.8NO LINE6 K—
Jack Perkins—5.6NO LINE4 K—
Max Fried—5.5NO LINE4 K—
Brandon Sproat—5.0NO LINE5 K—
George Kirby—5.0NO LINE3 K—
Tyler Mahle—4.8NO LINE3 K—
Kyle Bradish—4.8NO LINE4 K—
Matthew Liberatore—4.7NO LINE5 K—
Zac Thornton—4.6NO LINE5 K—
Noah Schultz—4.5NO LINE5 K—
Kumar Rocker—4.4NO LINE7 K—
Walbert Ureña—4.3NO LINE5 K—
Hunter Dobbins—4.2NO LINE4 K—
Merrill Kelly—4.0NO LINE6 K—
Keider Montero—4.0NO LINE1 K—
Tyler Phillips—3.5NO LINE5 K—
Martín Pérez—3.4NO LINE4 K—
Mitch Keller—3.1NO LINE4 K—
David Peterson—2.8NO LINE3 K—
SUN 07/2611-5
PRIELIPP O3.5 · 5K ✓ VALDEZ U4.5 · 4K ✓ DEGROM U7.5 · 4K ✓ SORIANO O4.5 · 5K ✓ PERALTA U5.5 · 3K ✓ GILBERT U6.5 · 4K ✓ SUAREZ O4.5 · 6K ✓ SHEEHAN U5.5 · 5K ✓ WARREN O4.5 · 5K ✓ SÁNCHEZ U6.5 · 6K ✓ GAUSMAN O5.5 · 6K ✓ TAILLON O4.5 · 3K ✗ SPRINGS O3.5 · 0K ✗ WHISENHUNT U4.5 · 7K ✗ ASHCRAFT O5.5 · 5K ✗ AVILA O4.5 · 2K ✗ +15 unlined 1 scratched
SAT 07/2516-12
BARNETT O1.5 · 2K ✓ JOHNSON O3.5 · 4K ✓ YAMAMOTO U6.5 · 5K ✓ BRATT U3.5 · 3K ✓ CEASE O7.5 · 12K ✓ ELDER O4.5 · 8K ✓ WEATHERS O5.5 · 7K ✓ GRIFFIN U4.5 · 2K ✓ MIZE U5.5 · 3K ✓ FELTNER U4.5 · 4K ✓ IMANAGA U5.5 · 4K ✓ BIBEE O3.5 · 5K ✓ MCLEAN O6.5 · 7K ✓ GRAY U4.5 · 3K ✓ WOO U5.5 · 5K ✓ RAY U5.5 · 5K ✓ GREENE O5.5 · 3K ✗ MARTINEZ U3.5 · 5K ✗ PALLANTE U4.5 · 8K ✗ SKENES U6.5 · 11K ✗ BROWN U5.5 · 7K ✗ WACHA O4.5 · 3K ✗ PÉREZ O5.5 · 2K ✗ YOUNG U4.5 · 6K ✗ EOVALDI U6.5 · 8K ✗ GASSER O5.5 · 4K ✗ SEARS O3.5 · 3K ✗ BURKE U5.5 · 10K ✗ +1 unlined 1 scratched
03

CLOSING LINE VALUE

slate of 2026-07-29 · BOTH frozen tracks · OVN = night-before opener entry, CONF = lineup-post entry · de-vigged fair probability, same line · the durable edge test
PITCHERPICKENTRYCLOSECLVRESULT
CONF Jesús LuzardoU 7.552.0%60.7%+8.6 PTS ✓W · 5K
CONF Jesús LuzardoU 7.553.0%60.7%+7.6 PTS ✓W · 5K
CONF Trey YesavageU 5.552.2%52.8%+0.6 PTS ✓W · 4K
CONF Trey YesavageU 5.552.7%52.8%+0.1 PTS ✓W · 4K
CONF Tarik SkubalU 8.551.2%50.7%-0.5 PTSW · 6K
CONF Tarik SkubalU 8.551.4%50.7%-0.7 PTSW · 6K
CONF Logan WebbU 5.555.7%54.2%-1.5 PTSW · 4K
CONF Logan WebbU 5.558.3%54.2%-4.1 PTSW · 4K
RESEARCH / PAPER-TRACK · NOT BETTING ADVICE. "OUR K%" IS A CALIBRATED PROBABILITY (CAPS ≈ 70% BY DESIGN). THE MODEL IS AT-MARKET; CLOSING-LINE VALUE IS THE TEST. COLOR KEY · VOLT = OUR MODEL · GOLD = FROZEN/CARDED · BLUE = THE MARKET · ORANGE = OVER · VIOLET = UNDER · GREEN/RED = LIVE & RESULTS ONLY. TICKER RE-POLLS LIVE KS EVERY 60s.